WON

Result: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Sparta Prague

AZ Alkmaar

Home Side

L W L W W

3W 0D 2L

2-1

UEFA Europa League

Sparta Prague

Away Side

L L W D W

2W 1D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing AZ Alkmaar to win or draw — Thursday, 12th March 2026

Best Odds 1.28

Confidence 90%

Implied Prob 78.1%

70%

20%

10%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw

1.28

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

78.1%

Based on 1.28 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

+11.9%

Value exists

Kelly Stake %

54.3%

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

AZ Alkmaar

Metric

Sparta Prague

Goals For / Game

1.6

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.2

20%

Clean Sheet %

40%

3-0-2

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.0%

0-1 7.0%

0-2 4.9%

0-3 2.3%

0-4 0.8%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 8.0%

1-1 11.2%

1-2 7.8%

1-3 3.6%

1-4 1.3%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 6.4%

2-1 8.9%

2-2 6.3%

2-3 2.9%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 3.4%

3-1 4.8%

3-2 3.3%

3-3 1.6%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 1.4%

4-1 1.9%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (11.2%) 2-1 (8.9%) 1-0 (8.0%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

AZ Alkmaar Win

70%

1.43

Draw

20%

Sparta Prague Win

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

AZ Alkmaar

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

Sparta Prague

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%

Home Win & BTTS No 28%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 18%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 33%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 5%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 22%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

⚽ ERE (07.03.26): PSV2

AZ Alkmaar1

⚽ KNV (04.03.26): AZ Alkmaar2

Telstar1

⚽ ERE (01.03.26): Utrecht2

AZ Alkmaar0

⚽ UECL (26.02.26): AZ Alkmaar4

FC Noah0

⚽ ERE (22.02.26): AZ Alkmaar3

Sparta Rotterdam1

Sparta Prague

⚽ 1L (08.03.26): Slavia Prague3

Sparta Prague1

⚽ CUP (03.03.26): Mlada Boleslav1

Sparta Prague (4-2)0

⚽ 1L (28.02.26): Sparta Prague5

Ostrava2

⚽ 1L (22.02.26): Viktoria Plzeň0

Sparta Prague0

⚽ 1L (15.02.26): Sparta Prague2

Hradec Kralove0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Sparta Prague in UEFA Europa League. We recommend AZ Alkmaar to win or draw as the standout selection.

AZ Alkmaar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Sparta Prague are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Our verdict: az alkmaar to win or draw at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar has had a bit of a rollercoaster season domestically, but under the lights at the AFAS Stadion, they are a completely different beast. Sparta Prague brings a very solid unbeaten run into this Conference League clash, making them no pushovers. However, any form watcher will note that AZ’s home advantage and attacking depth usually act as a great equalizer against highly structured teams. AZ knows a loss here deeply complicates their European journey, making it a definitive must-not-lose scenario.

Prediction: 1X (AZ Alkmaar Win or Draw)

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague?

Our selection is 1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 90%.

What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Sparta Prague been performing recently?

Sparta Prague have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game.

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