WON
Result:
Celta Vigo 1-1 Lyon
C
Celta Vigo
Home Side
L
W
W
W
W
4W 0D 1L
VS
1-1
L
Lyon
Away Side
D
L
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Celta Vigo to win or draw — Thursday, 12th March 2026
Best Odds
1.35
Confidence
80%
Implied Prob
74.1%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
74.1%
Based on 1.35 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+5.9%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
22.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
1
Celta Vigo
0
Draws
0
Lyon
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
1
Avg Goals
Neutral Data
Insufficient H2H data.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Celta Vigo
Metric
Lyon
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
4-0-1
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
C0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
6.6%
0-2
4.0%
0-3
1.6%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
C1
1-0
9.4%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
C2
2-0
8.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
C3
3-0
4.5%
3-1
5.4%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
1.9%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-1 (11.2%)
2-1 (9.5%)
1-0 (9.4%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓ L=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Celta Vigo Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Lyon Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
47%
Home Win & BTTS No
20%
Draw & BTTS Yes
12%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
40%
Home Win & Under 2.5
27%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
10%
Away Win & Under 2.5
6%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ CF (29.07.23): Celta Vigo1
Lyon0
Recent Form
Celta Vigo
⚽ LL (06.03.26): Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
⚽ LL (01.03.26): Girona1
Celta Vigo2
⚽ EL (26.02.26): Celta Vigo1
PAOK (3-1)0
⚽ LL (22.02.26): Celta Vigo2
Mallorca0
⚽ EL (19.02.26): PAOK1
Celta Vigo2
Lyon
⚽ L1 (08.03.26): Lyon1
Paris FC1
⚽ CDF (05.03.26): Lyon2
Lens (5-4)2
⚽ L1 (01.03.26): Marseille3
Lyon2
⚽ L1 (22.02.26): Strasbourg3
Lyon1
⚽ L1 (15.02.26): Lyon2
Nice0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Celta Vigo is turning Balaídos into a fortress again. They are coming off a fantastic recent run (winning four of their last five before a narrow slip against Real Madrid), while Lyon is currently stuck in a tough rut, dropping points in three of their last four games. This Europa League clash is a massive opportunity for the Spanish side. Given Lyon’s recent struggles on the road, Celta has the H2H edge and the form advantage to control the game and secure a result.
Prediction: 1X (Celta Vigo Win or Draw)
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Lyon?
Our selection is 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Celta Vigo's current form?
Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Lyon been performing recently?
Lyon have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Celta Vigo lead with 1 wins versus Lyon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.