WON

Result: Celta Vigo 1-1 Lyon

Celta Vigo

Home Side

L W W W W

4W 0D 1L

1-1

UEFA Europa League

Lyon

Away Side

D L L L W

1W 2D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Celta Vigo to win or draw — Thursday, 12th March 2026

Best Odds 1.35

Confidence 80%

Implied Prob 74.1%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw

1.35

Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%

Implied Prob

74.1%

Based on 1.35 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

+5.9%

Value exists

Kelly Stake %

22.9%

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Celta Vigo

Draws

Lyon

Meetings

BTTS Rate

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Celta Vigo

Metric

Lyon

1.6

Goals For / Game

1.6

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.8

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate Comparison

80%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 6.6%

0-2 4.0%

0-3 1.6%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.4%

1-1 11.2%

1-2 6.7%

1-3 2.7%

1-4 0.8%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.0%

2-1 9.5%

2-2 5.7%

2-3 2.3%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.5%

3-1 5.4%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.3%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.9%

4-1 2.3%

4-2 1.4%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.8%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (11.2%) 2-1 (9.5%) 1-0 (9.4%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓ L=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Celta Vigo Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Lyon Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Celta Vigo

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

7.3 —

Lyon

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 47%

Home Win & BTTS No 20%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 5%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 40%

Home Win & Under 2.5 27%

Draw & Over 2.5 10%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ CF (29.07.23): Celta Vigo1

Lyon0

Recent Form

Celta Vigo

⚽ LL (06.03.26): Celta Vigo1

Real Madrid2

⚽ LL (01.03.26): Girona1

Celta Vigo2

⚽ EL (26.02.26): Celta Vigo1

PAOK (3-1)0

⚽ LL (22.02.26): Celta Vigo2

Mallorca0

⚽ EL (19.02.26): PAOK1

Celta Vigo2

Lyon

⚽ L1 (08.03.26): Lyon1

Paris FC1

⚽ CDF (05.03.26): Lyon2

Lens (5-4)2

⚽ L1 (01.03.26): Marseille3

Lyon2

⚽ L1 (22.02.26): Strasbourg3

Lyon1

⚽ L1 (15.02.26): Lyon2

Nice0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, Celta Vigo host Lyon in UEFA Europa League. We recommend Celta Vigo to win or draw as the standout selection.

Celta Vigo arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Lyon are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Celta Vigo, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Lyon's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: celta vigo to win or draw at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Celta Vigo is turning Balaídos into a fortress again. They are coming off a fantastic recent run (winning four of their last five before a narrow slip against Real Madrid), while Lyon is currently stuck in a tough rut, dropping points in three of their last four games. This Europa League clash is a massive opportunity for the Spanish side. Given Lyon’s recent struggles on the road, Celta has the H2H edge and the form advantage to control the game and secure a result.

Prediction: 1X (Celta Vigo Win or Draw)

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Lyon?

Our selection is 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 80%.

What is Celta Vigo's current form?

Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Lyon been performing recently?

Lyon have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Celta Vigo lead with 1 wins versus Lyon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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