WON

Result: ACF Fiorentina 2-1 Rakow

ACF Fiorentina

Q: What is the recommended bet for ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 84%.

Home Side

D L L W W

2W 1D 2L

2-1

UEFA Conference League

Rakow

Away Side

W W L W D

3W 1D 1L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Over 1.5

Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 12th March 2026

Best Odds 1.28

Confidence 84%

Implied Prob 78.1%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals

1.28

BTTS — No70% ACF Fiorentina Clean Sheet60% Rakow Clean Sheet60%

Implied Prob

78.1%

Based on 1.28 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

+5.9%

Value exists

Kelly Stake %

26.9%

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

ACF Fiorentina

Metric

Rakow

1.2

Goals For / Game

1.6

1.4

Goals Against / Game

60%

Clean Sheet %

60%

2-1-2

W — D — L

3-1-1

Win Rate Comparison

40%

60%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 7.4%

0-1 11.1%

0-2 8.4%

0-3 4.2%

0-4 1.6%

0-5 0.5%

1-0 8.2%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 9.2%

1-3 4.6%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 4.5%

2-1 6.7%

2-2 5.1%

2-3 2.5%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 1.7%

3-1 2.5%

3-2 1.9%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.5%

4-1 0.7%

4-2 0.5%

4-3 0.3%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.1%

5-1 0.2%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.3%) 0-1 (11.1%) 1-2 (9.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ R=Away goals →

📈 Team Ratings Grades

ACF Fiorentina

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

5.3 —

Rakow

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Home Win & BTTS No 23%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 12%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Away Win & BTTS No 35%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 17%

Home Win & Under 2.5 17%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 9%

Away Win & Over 2.5 25%

Away Win & Under 2.5 25%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

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Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

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Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form

ACF Fiorentina

⚽ SA (08.03.26): Fiorentina0

Parma0

⚽ SA (02.03.26): Udinese3

Fiorentina0

⚽ UECL (26.02.26): Fiorentina2

Jagiellonia (5-4)4

⚽ SA (23.02.26): Fiorentina1

Pisa0

⚽ UECL (19.02.26): Jagiellonia0

Fiorentina3

Rakow

⚽ EKS (08.03.26): Rakow2

Pogon Szczecin0

⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Avia Swidnik1

Rakow (AET)2

⚽ EKS (01.03.26): Lech Poznan4

Rakow3

⚽ EKS (21.02.26): Rakow1

Termalica B-B.0

⚽ EKS (14.02.26): Zaglebie0

Rakow0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, ACF Fiorentina host Rakow in UEFA Conference League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

ACF Fiorentina arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Rakow are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 1D 1L across 5 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Fiorentina relies heavily on the energy of the Artemio Franchi crowd to dictate the tempo and suffocate opponents. Rakow has proven they can punch above their weight, but dealing with Fiorentina’s relentless pressing is a massive hurdle. Looking at their tactical setups, Fiorentina will push high, leaving just enough space for Rakow to counter. This specific tactical dynamic almost always results in goals. It’s a must-win for La Viola to assert European dominance, so expect them to come out swinging.

Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 84%.

What is ACF Fiorentina's current form?

ACF Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Rakow been performing recently?

Rakow have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game.

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