WON

Result: UPDF 1-2 Vipers

UPDF

Home Side

D L L D L

0W 2D 3L

1-2

Uganda Premier League

Vipers

Away Side

W W D D W

3W 2D 0L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Vipers to win — Wednesday, 11th March 2026

Best Odds 1.41

Confidence 66%

Implied Prob 70.9%

20%

30%

50%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

2 — Vipers to win

1.41

Under 2.5 Goals70%

Implied Prob

70.9%

Based on 1.41 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-4.9%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

UPDF

Draws

Vipers

Meetings

40%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

2.4

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Vipers won 5 of 5 meetings.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

UPDF

Metric

Vipers

0.2

Goals For / Game

2.2

0.8

Goals Against / Game

0.6

20%

Clean Sheet %

40%

0-2-3

W — D — L

3-2-0

Win Rate Comparison

60%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 15.0%

0-1 22.4%

0-2 16.8%

0-3 8.4%

0-4 3.2%

0-5 1.0%

1-0 6.0%

1-1 9.0%

1-2 6.7%

1-3 3.4%

1-4 1.3%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 1.2%

2-1 1.8%

2-2 1.4%

2-3 0.7%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 0.2%

3-1 0.2%

3-2 0.2%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 0.0%

4-1 0.0%

4-2 0.0%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 0-1 (22.4%) 0-2 (16.8%) 0-3 (8.4%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · U=Home goals ↓ V=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

UPDF Win

20%

Draw

30%

3.33

Vipers Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

UPDF

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

0.7 —

Defence

7.3 —

Vipers

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

8.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Home Win & BTTS No 0%

Draw & BTTS Yes 16%

Draw & BTTS No 24%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Away Win & BTTS No 36%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 0%

Home Win & Under 2.5 0%

Draw & Over 2.5 12%

Draw & Under 2.5 28%

Away Win & Over 2.5 18%

Away Win & Under 2.5 42%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ PL (02.12.25): Vipers5

UPDF1

⚽ PL (29.04.25): Vipers1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (03.01.25): UPDF0

Vipers1

⚽ PL (05.04.24): Vipers2

UPDF1

⚽ PL (03.12.23): UPDF0

Vipers1

Recent Form

UPDF

⚽ PL (06.03.26): UPDF1

Kitara1

⚽ PL (03.03.26): NEC FC1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (18.02.26): Lugazi1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (13.02.26): UPDF0

Buhimba0

⚽ PL (30.01.26): UPDF0

BUL1

Vipers

⚽ PL (07.03.26): Mbarara City1

Vipers2

⚽ PL (03.03.26): Vipers3

Lugazi0

⚽ PL (17.02.26): Vipers1

NEC FC1

⚽ PL (13.02.26): BUL1

Vipers1

⚽ PL (30.01.26): Vipers4

Buhimba0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, UPDF host Vipers in Uganda Premier League. We recommend Vipers to win as the standout selection.

UPDF arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Vipers are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 2D 0L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour UPDF, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Vipers's 5, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: vipers to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

This is a classic “top vs. bottom” clash in the Uganda Premier League. Vipers SC is currently 1st and looks unstoppable, having dismantled UPDF 5-1 in their previous meeting this season. UPDF is 15th and deeply embroiled in a relegation scrap. They haven’t won a game in their last five outings and have a goal difference of -14. Vipers’ squad depth and professional setup make them massive favorites here, even away from home at the Bombo Stadium.

Prediction: Vipers Win

Must Win: Vipers lead the table by just one point; any slip-up would hand the title advantage to Kitara or KCCA.
Form Watcher: Vipers have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5; UPDF is winless in 5.
H2H: Vipers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, with UPDF failing to win even once.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for UPDF vs Vipers?

Our selection is 2 — Vipers to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 66%.

What is UPDF's current form?

UPDF have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

How has Vipers been performing recently?

Vipers have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

UPDF lead with 0 wins versus Vipers's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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