WON
Result:
UPDF 1-2 Vipers
U
UPDF
Home Side
D
L
L
D
L
0W 2D 3L
VS
1-2
V
Vipers
Away Side
W
W
D
D
W
3W 2D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Vipers to win — Wednesday, 11th March 2026
Best Odds
1.41
Confidence
66%
Implied Prob
70.9%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Vipers to win
1.41
Under 2.5 Goals70%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-4.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
0
UPDF
0
Draws
5
Vipers
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Vipers won 5 of 5 meetings.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
UPDF
Metric
Vipers
0.2
Goals For / Game
2.2
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0.6
20%
Clean Sheet %
40%
0-2-3
W — D — L
3-2-0
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
U0
0-0
15.0%
0-1
22.4%
0-2
16.8%
0-3
8.4%
0-4
3.2%
0-5
1.0%
U1
1-0
6.0%
1-1
9.0%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
3.4%
1-4
1.3%
1-5
0.4%
U2
2-0
1.2%
2-1
1.8%
2-2
1.4%
2-3
0.7%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
U3
3-0
0.2%
3-1
0.2%
3-2
0.2%
3-3
0.1%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
U4
4-0
0.0%
4-1
0.0%
4-2
0.0%
4-3
0.0%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
U5
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.0%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
0-1 (22.4%)
0-2 (16.8%)
0-3 (8.4%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · U=Home goals ↓ V=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
UPDF Win
5
20%
Draw
3.33
30%
Vipers Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Home Win & BTTS No
0%
Draw & BTTS Yes
16%
Draw & BTTS No
24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
24%
Away Win & BTTS No
36%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
0%
Home Win & Under 2.5
0%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
28%
Away Win & Over 2.5
18%
Away Win & Under 2.5
42%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ PL (02.12.25): Vipers5
UPDF1
⚽ PL (29.04.25): Vipers1
UPDF0
⚽ PL (03.01.25): UPDF0
Vipers1
⚽ PL (05.04.24): Vipers2
UPDF1
⚽ PL (03.12.23): UPDF0
Vipers1
Recent Form
UPDF
⚽ PL (06.03.26): UPDF1
Kitara1
⚽ PL (03.03.26): NEC FC1
UPDF0
⚽ PL (18.02.26): Lugazi1
UPDF0
⚽ PL (13.02.26): UPDF0
Buhimba0
⚽ PL (30.01.26): UPDF0
BUL1
Vipers
⚽ PL (07.03.26): Mbarara City1
Vipers2
⚽ PL (03.03.26): Vipers3
Lugazi0
⚽ PL (17.02.26): Vipers1
NEC FC1
⚽ PL (13.02.26): BUL1
Vipers1
⚽ PL (30.01.26): Vipers4
Buhimba0
Match Analysis
Writeup
This is a classic “top vs. bottom” clash in the Uganda Premier League. Vipers SC is currently 1st and looks unstoppable, having dismantled UPDF 5-1 in their previous meeting this season. UPDF is 15th and deeply embroiled in a relegation scrap. They haven’t won a game in their last five outings and have a goal difference of -14. Vipers’ squad depth and professional setup make them massive favorites here, even away from home at the Bombo Stadium.
Prediction: Vipers Win
-
Must Win: Vipers lead the table by just one point; any slip-up would hand the title advantage to Kitara or KCCA.
-
Form Watcher: Vipers have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5; UPDF is winless in 5.
-
H2H: Vipers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, with UPDF failing to win even once.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for UPDF vs Vipers?
Our selection is 2 — Vipers to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is UPDF's current form?
UPDF have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
How has Vipers been performing recently?
Vipers have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
UPDF lead with 0 wins versus Vipers's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.