WON
Result: Sabah Baku 7-1 Gabala
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan League Sabah Baku vs Gabala
S

Sabah Baku

Home Side
W D W W W
4W 1D 0L
VS
7-1
Azerbaijan League
G
Gabala
Away Side
L D L D L
0W 2D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Sabah Baku to win — Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 62%
Implied Prob 76.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
3
Sabah Baku
1
Draws
1
Gabala
5
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
2.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Sabah Baku won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Sabah Baku
Metric
Gabala
2.6
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
4-1-0
W — D — L
0-2-3
Win Rate Comparison
80%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
S0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.1%
0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 8.1%
1-1 8.9%
1-2 4.9%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 7.2%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 3.6%
4-1 4.0%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.8%) 2-0 (8.9%) 1-0 (8.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Sabah Baku Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gabala Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Sabah Baku
Overall
8.6
Scoring
8.7
Defence
5.3
Gabala
Overall
1.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
⚽ CUP (04.02.26): Sabah Baku0
Gabala0
⚽ PL (03.11.25): Sabah Baku1
Gabala0
⚽ PL (12.05.24): Gabala2
Sabah Baku0
Recent Form
Sabah Baku
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (01.03.26): Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
⚽ PL (22.02.26): Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
⚽ PL (08.02.26): Sabah Baku4
Araz1
Gabala
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (28.02.26): Gabala1
Karvan1
⚽ PL (24.02.26): Gabala0
Turan Tovuz3
⚽ PL (20.02.26): Sumqayit0
Gabala0
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Sabah Baku host Gabala in Azerbaijan League. We recommend Sabah Baku to win as the standout selection.

Sabah Baku arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Gabala are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sabah Baku, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Gabala's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sabah baku to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


This Azerbaijan Premier League fixture is a classic clash between an unstoppable force and a severely struggling attack. From a must-win perspective, Sabah Baku is heavily invested in a title push and knows that dropping points at home to a bottom-half team would be a massive missed opportunity. For Gabala, it’s more about survival and trying to scrape a desperate point on the road to avoid sliding further down the table. For the form watcher, Sabah Baku’s resume right now is genuinely intimidating. They are riding a ridiculous 23-game unbeaten streak and haven’t tasted defeat on their home turf in their last 11 outings. Their defense is an absolute wall. Gabala, unfortunately, is dealing with a severe goal drought. They are struggling to create meaningful chances, let alone finish them, making this away trip look incredibly daunting. Diving into the H2H stats, Sabah’s dominance is crystal clear. In their last 16 meetings at Sabah’s home ground, the hosts have walked away with 10 victories, consistently keeping Gabala off the scoresheet. Gabala has occasionally managed to pull off a shock 1-0 upset in the past, but current trajectories suggest that lightning won’t strike twice. Sabah will control the midfield, shut down Gabala’s weak counters, and strike.

  • Prediction: Sabah Baku to win.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Gabala?
Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Sabah Baku's current form?
Sabah Baku have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Gabala been performing recently?
Gabala have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabah Baku lead with 3 wins versus Gabala's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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