WON
Result: Linfield 3-1 Portadown
DirectWinPredict NIFL Premiership Linfield vs Portadown
L

Linfield

Home Side
L D W W W
3W 1D 1L
VS
3-1
NIFL Premiership
P
Portadown
Away Side
D L L W W
2W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Linfield to win — Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Best Odds 1.23
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 81.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Linfield to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
81.3%
Based on 1.23 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-25.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Linfield
1
Draws
1
Portadown
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Linfield won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Linfield
Metric
Portadown
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-1-1
W — D — L
2-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
60%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
L0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 7.3%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 14.5%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 11.6%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (14.5%) 2-0 (11.6%) 2-1 (9.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Linfield Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Portadown Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Linfield
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.3
Portadown
Overall
4.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ NIFL (17.10.25): Portadown2
Linfield0
⚽ NIFL (06.09.25): Linfield3
Portadown0
⚽ NIFL (18.01.25): Portadown1
Linfield3
⚽ NIFL (30.11.24): Linfield2
Portadown1
⚽ NIFL (30.08.24): Portadown2
Linfield2
Recent Form
Linfield
⚽ NIFL (01.03.26): Cliftonville2
Linfield0
⚽ NIFL (24.02.26): Larne1
Linfield1
⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Linfield1
Glentoran0
⚽ NIFL (17.02.26): Dungannon1
Linfield4
⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Glenavon0
Linfield3
Portadown
⚽ NIFL (07.03.26): Ballymena1
Portadown1
⚽ NIFL (04.03.26): Portadown0
Cliftonville2
⚽ NIFL (28.02.26): Glenavon3
Portadown0
⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Portadown1
Dungannon0
⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Portadown2
Larne1
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Linfield host Portadown in NIFL Premiership. We recommend Linfield to win as the standout selection.

Linfield arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Portadown are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Linfield, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Portadown's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: linfield to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


This Northern Ireland Premiership clash at Windsor Park has all the makings of a heavily one-sided affair. Looking at the must-win dynamic, Linfield is sitting in fourth place and desperately chasing the likes of Larne and Glentoran for the top spot. Dropping points against a bottom-half side simply isn’t an option if they want to keep their championship dreams alive. For the form watcher, the contrast between these two clubs is night and day. Linfield boasts an incredible home record, going unbeaten in their last six matches at Windsor Park and turning the ground into an absolute fortress. Although they suffered a recent blip away to Cliftonville, their overall trajectory is incredibly strong. Portadown, meanwhile, is stuck in a massive rut. Sitting down in eighth place, they just suffered back-to-back bruising defeats against Glenavon (3-0) and Cliftonville (2-0). Their defense is leaking goals, and their attack lacks the bite needed to threaten top-tier opposition. When we look at the H2H statistics, it gets even grimmer for the visitors. Linfield has won 18 of their last 24 home meetings against Portadown, completely suffocating them year after year. Portadown hasn’t found a way to crack the code in Belfast, and that trend is highly unlikely to change today.

  • Prediction: Linfield to win.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Linfield vs Portadown?
Our selection is 1 — Linfield to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Linfield's current form?
Linfield have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Portadown been performing recently?
Portadown have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Linfield lead with 3 wins versus Portadown's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
Scroll to Top