WON
Result: Flora 3-1 Nomme Utd
DirectWinPredict Estonian Cup Flora vs Nomme Utd
F

Flora

Home Side
W L L W W
3W 0D 2L
VS
3-1
Estonian Cup
N
Nomme Utd
Away Side
L W W D L
2W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Flora to win — Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Best Odds 1.14
Confidence 65%
Implied Prob 87.7%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Flora to win
1.14
Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
87.7%
Based on 1.14 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-22.7%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Flora
1
Draws
0
Nomme Utd
5
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Flora won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Flora
Metric
Nomme Utd
1.6
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.4
Goals Against / Game
2.2
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
2-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
60%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
F0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 4.0%
0-3 2.6%
0-4 1.2%
0-5 0.5%
F1
1-0 4.3%
1-1 8.1%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 4.9%
1-4 2.3%
1-5 0.9%
F2
2-0 4.0%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 7.3%
2-3 4.6%
2-4 2.2%
2-5 0.8%
F3
3-0 2.6%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 2.9%
3-4 1.4%
3-5 0.5%
F4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 1.4%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.3%
F5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (7.7%) 3-1 (4.9%) 3-2 (4.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   N=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Flora Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Nomme Utd Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Flora
Overall
6.0
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.3
Nomme Utd
Overall
4.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
2.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 50%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 32%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3
Nomme Utd0
⚽ ML (05.10.24): Nomme Utd0
Flora4
⚽ ML (18.08.24): Flora1
Nomme Utd0
⚽ ML (29.06.24): Nomme Utd1
Flora1
⚽ ML (01.03.24): Flora2
Nomme Utd0
Recent Form
Flora
⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3
Nomme Utd0
⚽ SC (28.02.26): Flora1
Kalju3
⚽ CF (24.02.26): Flora0
Riga FC3
⚽ CF (20.02.26): Paide1
Flora3
⚽ CF (14.02.26): Flora1
Levadia0
Nomme Utd
⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3
Nomme Utd0
⚽ CF (20.02.26): Viimsi JK1
Nomme Utd5
⚽ CF (14.02.26): Nomme Utd3
FC Tallinn0
⚽ CF (07.02.26): Kuressaare3
Nomme Utd3
⚽ CF (01.02.26): Nomme Utd1
Jelgava4
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Flora host Nomme Utd in Estonian Cup. We recommend Flora to win as the standout selection.

Flora arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Nomme Utd are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flora, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Nomme Utd's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: flora to win at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Over in the Estonia Meistriliiga, we have a fascinating early-season clash that already feels heavily tilted in one direction. From a must-win standpoint, Flora is the gold standard of Estonian football and expects to challenge for the title every single year. They view home matches against newly promoted or lower-tier opposition as guaranteed points, and any slip-up here would be considered a massive organizational failure. For the form watcher, Flora’s recent performances have been nothing short of clinical. They just dismantled this exact same Nomme Utd side 3-0 a few days ago on March 7th, exposing every single flaw in Nomme’s defensive setup. Nomme United, on the other hand, is struggling to adjust to the pace and physicality of the top flight, consistently bleeding goals against superior opposition. The H2H history tells a story of absolute dominance. Flora has steamrolled Nomme in almost every recent encounter, including a ruthless 4-0 thrashing late last year and a routine 2-0 win before that. Nomme simply doesn’t have the tactical discipline or the squad depth to keep Flora’s attackers at bay for 90 minutes. Flora will dominate possession, pin Nomme back, and break them down multiple times.

  • Prediction: Flora to win.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Nomme Utd?
Our selection is 1 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Flora's current form?
Flora have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Nomme Utd been performing recently?
Nomme Utd have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flora lead with 4 wins versus Nomme Utd's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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