WON
Result:
Villarreal 2-1 Elche
V
Villarreal
Home Side
L
W
W
L
W
3W 0D 2L
VS
2-1
E
Elche
Away Side
D
L
D
L
L
0W 2D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Villarreal to win — Sunday, 8th March 2026
Best Odds
1.53
Confidence
56%
Implied Prob
65.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Villarreal to win
1.53
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
BTTS — Yes80%
Implied Prob
65.4%
Based on 1.53 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-9.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
2
Elche
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Villarreal won 3 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Villarreal
Metric
Elche
1.8
Goals For / Game
1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
0-2-3
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
V0
0-0
4.1%
0-1
5.3%
0-2
3.4%
0-3
1.5%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
V1
1-0
7.7%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
6.5%
1-3
2.8%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.2%
V2
2-0
7.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
2.7%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
V3
3-0
4.7%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
3.9%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
V4
4-0
2.2%
4-1
2.9%
4-2
1.9%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
V5
5-0
0.8%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
2-1 (9.6%)
1-0 (7.7%)
2-0 (7.4%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · V=Home goals ↓ E=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Villarreal Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Elche Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
60%
Home Win & BTTS No
15%
Draw & BTTS Yes
20%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
60%
Home Win & Under 2.5
15%
Draw & Over 2.5
20%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ LL (Jan 3, 2026): Elche1
Villarreal3
⚽ LL (Feb 4, 2023): Elche3
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Sep 4, 2022): Villarreal4
Elche0
⚽ LL (Jan 16, 2022): Elche1
Villarreal0
⚽ LL (Sep 22, 2021): Villarreal4
Elche1
Recent Form
Villarreal
⚽ LL (Feb 28, 2026): Barcelona4
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 22, 2026): Villarreal2
Valencia1
⚽ LL (Feb 18, 2026): Levante0
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 14, 2026): Getafe2
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 9, 2026): Villarreal4
Espanyol1
Elche
⚽ LL (Mar 1, 2026): Elche2
Espanyol2
⚽ LL (Feb 20, 2026): Ath Bilbao2
Elche1
⚽ LL (Feb 13, 2026): Elche0
Osasuna0
⚽ LL (Feb 7, 2026): Real Sociedad3
Elche1
⚽ LL (Jan 31, 2026): Elche1
Barcelona3
Match Analysis
Writeup
Villarreal welcomes Elche to the Estadio de la Cerámica in a classic “David vs. Goliath” scenario. The Yellow Submarine is currently entrenched in the top four, eyeing a Champions League spot. Despite a heavy 4-1 loss to Barcelona last week, their home form remains a fortress, with four wins in their last six at home. They average 1.7 goals per game and possess a vastly superior clinical edge compared to their visitors.
Elche, sitting precariously in 17th, is desperate for points to avoid the drop. However, their travel record is grim; they haven’t won an away game in their last six attempts. While they managed to scrape draws against Osasuna and Espanyol recently, the sheer quality gap in midfield will likely be their undoing here. Villarreal won the reverse fixture 3-1 in January, and history tends to repeat itself when Elche faces high-pressing sides.
- Form Watcher: Villarreal (W-W-L); Elche (D-L-D).
- H2H: Villarreal has won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
- Must Win: High for Villarreal (Champions League race).
- Prediction: Villarreal Win
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Villarreal vs Elche?
Our selection is 1 — Villarreal to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Villarreal's current form?
Villarreal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Elche been performing recently?
Elche have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Villarreal lead with 3 wins versus Elche's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.