WON
Result: Villarreal 2-1 Elche
DirectWinPredict La Liga Villarreal vs Elche
V

Villarreal

Home Side
L W W L W
3W 0D 2L
VS
2-1
La Liga
E
Elche
Away Side
D L D L L
0W 2D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Villarreal to win — Sunday, 8th March 2026
Best Odds 1.53
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 65.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Villarreal to win
1.53
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — Yes80%
Implied Prob
65.4%
Based on 1.53 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-9.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
2
Elche
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Villarreal won 3 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Villarreal
Metric
Elche
1.8
Goals For / Game
1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
0-2-3
Win Rate Comparison
60%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
V0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 5.3%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
V1
1-0 7.7%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.8%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
V2
2-0 7.4%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
V3
3-0 4.7%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.1%
V4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 2.9%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
V5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.6%) 1-0 (7.7%) 2-0 (7.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · V=Home goals ↓   E=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Villarreal Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Elche Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Villarreal
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.0
Defence
4.7
Elche
Overall
1.2
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 60%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 20%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 60%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ LL (Jan 3, 2026): Elche1
Villarreal3
⚽ LL (Feb 4, 2023): Elche3
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Sep 4, 2022): Villarreal4
Elche0
⚽ LL (Jan 16, 2022): Elche1
Villarreal0
⚽ LL (Sep 22, 2021): Villarreal4
Elche1
Recent Form
Villarreal
⚽ LL (Feb 28, 2026): Barcelona4
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 22, 2026): Villarreal2
Valencia1
⚽ LL (Feb 18, 2026): Levante0
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 14, 2026): Getafe2
Villarreal1
⚽ LL (Feb 9, 2026): Villarreal4
Espanyol1
Elche
⚽ LL (Mar 1, 2026): Elche2
Espanyol2
⚽ LL (Feb 20, 2026): Ath Bilbao2
Elche1
⚽ LL (Feb 13, 2026): Elche0
Osasuna0
⚽ LL (Feb 7, 2026): Real Sociedad3
Elche1
⚽ LL (Jan 31, 2026): Elche1
Barcelona3
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, Villarreal host Elche in La Liga. We recommend Villarreal to win as the standout selection.

Villarreal arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Elche are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Villarreal, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Elche's 2, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: villarreal to win at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Villarreal welcomes Elche to the Estadio de la Cerámica in a classic “David vs. Goliath” scenario. The Yellow Submarine is currently entrenched in the top four, eyeing a Champions League spot. Despite a heavy 4-1 loss to Barcelona last week, their home form remains a fortress, with four wins in their last six at home. They average 1.7 goals per game and possess a vastly superior clinical edge compared to their visitors.

Elche, sitting precariously in 17th, is desperate for points to avoid the drop. However, their travel record is grim; they haven’t won an away game in their last six attempts. While they managed to scrape draws against Osasuna and Espanyol recently, the sheer quality gap in midfield will likely be their undoing here. Villarreal won the reverse fixture 3-1 in January, and history tends to repeat itself when Elche faces high-pressing sides.

  • Form Watcher: Villarreal (W-W-L); Elche (D-L-D).
  • H2H: Villarreal has won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Must Win: High for Villarreal (Champions League race).
  • Prediction: Villarreal Win
Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Villarreal vs Elche?
Our selection is 1 — Villarreal to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Villarreal's current form?
Villarreal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Elche been performing recently?
Elche have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Villarreal lead with 3 wins versus Elche's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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