WON
Result:
Young Boys 1-2 Thun
Y
Young Boys
Home Side
W
W
L
W
L
4W 0D 1L
VS
1-2
T
Thun
Away Side
D
W
W
W
W
4W 1D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Sunday, 8th March 2026
Best Odds
1.38
Confidence
92%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals90%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+19.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
70.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
3
Young Boys
0
Draws
2
Thun
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
4.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Young Boys
Metric
Thun
3
Goals For / Game
2.6
1
Goals Against / Game
0.8
20%
Clean Sheet %
40%
4-0-1
W — D — L
4-1-0
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
Y0
0-0
2.5%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
0-3
2.4%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.4%
Y1
1-0
4.7%
1-1
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
2.1%
1-5
0.7%
Y2
2-0
4.5%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.2%
2-3
4.3%
2-4
2.0%
2-5
0.7%
Y3
3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
4.6%
3-3
2.8%
3-4
1.2%
3-5
0.5%
Y4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
2.4%
4-2
2.2%
4-3
1.3%
4-4
0.6%
4-5
0.2%
Y5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.8%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Predicted Scores
1-1 (8.5%)
2-1 (8.0%)
1-2 (7.6%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · Y=Home goals ↓ T=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
33%
Home Win & BTTS No
14%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
33%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
42%
Home Win & Under 2.5
5%
Draw & Over 2.5
5%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
42%
Away Win & Under 2.5
5%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ SL (Jan 25, 2026): Thun4
Young Boys1
⚽ SL (Sep 28, 2025): Young Boys4
Thun2
⚽ CF (Jun 28, 2024): Young Boys0
Thun2
⚽ CF (Jul 15, 2023): Young Boys4
Thun0
⚽ CUP (Feb 28, 2023): Thun0
Young Boys5
Recent Form
Young Boys
⚽ SL (Mar 4, 2026): Luzern1
Young Boys2
⚽ SL (Mar 1, 2026): Young Boys3
Zurich0
⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): Sion1
Young Boys3
⚽ SL (Feb 14, 2026): Young Boys6
Winterthur1
⚽ SL (Feb 11, 2026): St. Gallen2
Young Boys1
Thun
⚽ SL (Mar 5, 2026): Thun2
St. Gallen2
⚽ SL (Feb 28, 2026): Thun2
Luzern1
⚽ SL (Feb 25, 2026): Winterthur0
Thun3
⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): Thun1
Sion0
⚽ SL (Feb 12, 2026): Thun5
Lausanne1
Match Analysis
Writeup
This is a shocking season for Swiss fans. FC Thun, usually the underdog, is currently top of the league, while the perennial champions Young Boys are languishing in 6th. Thun has won five games in a row and is playing with immense confidence.
Young Boys have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a crisis by their standards. While YB has a great historical home record against Thun, the “Form Watcher” suggests the tide has turned. Thun is clinical, whereas YB is struggling with defensive lapses. However, YB at home is always dangerous, and they will view this as the “must-win” of the season to save their reputation.
- Form Watcher: Thun (W-W-W); Young Boys (L-L-L).
- H2H: YB won the last two at home, but Thun won the most recent meeting 1-0.
- Prediction: Over 2.5.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Young Boys vs Thun?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 92%.
What is Young Boys's current form?
Young Boys have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Thun been performing recently?
Thun have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Young Boys lead with 3 wins versus Thun's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.