WON

Result: Esperance Tunis 1-0 AS Marsa

Esperance Tunis

Home Side

W D W W W

3W 1D 1L

1-0

Tunisian League

AS Marsa

Away Side

L W L L W

2W 0D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Esperance Tunis to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026

Best Odds 1.19

Confidence 65%

Implied Prob 84%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Esperance Tunis to win

1.19

BTTS — No80% Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet60%

Implied Prob

84%

Based on 1.19 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-19%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Esperance Tunis

Draws

AS Marsa

Meetings

BTTS Rate

20%

Over 2.5

1.4

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Esperance Tunis won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Esperance Tunis

Metric

AS Marsa

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

0.4

Goals Against / Game

1.4

60%

Clean Sheet %

40%

3-1-1

W — D — L

2-0-3

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 11.1%

0-1 6.7%

0-2 2.0%

0-3 0.4%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 17.7%

1-1 10.6%

1-2 3.2%

1-3 0.6%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.2%

2-1 8.5%

2-2 2.6%

2-3 0.5%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 7.6%

3-1 4.5%

3-2 1.4%

3-3 0.3%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.0%

4-1 1.8%

4-2 0.5%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.0%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (17.7%) 2-0 (14.2%) 2-1 (8.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Esperance Tunis

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

8.7 —

AS Marsa

Overall

4.0 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Home Win & BTTS No 44%

Draw & BTTS Yes 2%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%

Away Win & BTTS No 29%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 22%

Home Win & Under 2.5 33%

Draw & Over 2.5 4%

Draw & Under 2.5 5%

Away Win & Over 2.5 14%

Away Win & Under 2.5 22%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ LP1 (Oct 1, 2025): AS Marsa0

Esperance Tunis3

⚽ LP1 (Dec 5, 2023): AS Marsa0

Esperance Tunis1

⚽ LP1 (Aug 19, 2023): Esperance Tunis1

AS Marsa0

⚽ CUP (Mar 15, 2020): AS Marsa0

Esperance Tunis2

⚽ LP1 (Dec 10, 2016): Esperance Tunis0

AS Marsa0

Recent Form

Esperance Tunis

⚽ LP1 (Mar 1, 2026): Olympique Beja0

Esperance Tunis3

⚽ LP1 (Feb 25, 2026): Metlaoui1

Esperance Tunis1

⚽ LP1 (Feb 21, 2026): Esperance Tunis1

Stade Tunisien0

⚽ LP1 (Feb 17, 2026): Soliman0

Esperance Tunis3

⚽ CL (Feb 14, 2026): Esperance Tunis2

Petro Atletico0

AS Marsa

⚽ LP1 (Feb 28, 2026): AS Marsa0

Stade Tunisien4

⚽ LP1 (Feb 14, 2026): Soliman0

AS Marsa2

⚽ LP1 (Feb 7, 2026): AS Marsa1

JS Kairouan2

⚽ LP1 (Feb 1, 2026): Monastir1

AS Marsa0

⚽ LP1 (Jan 28, 2026): AS Marsa1

AS Gabes0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, Esperance Tunis host AS Marsa in Tunisian League. We recommend Esperance Tunis to win as the standout selection.

Esperance Tunis arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

AS Marsa are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 0D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Esperance Tunis, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to AS Marsa's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: esperance tunis to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

The league leaders, Esperance, face an AS Marsa side that has struggled to stay afloat in the top ten. Esperance is coming off a dominant run, including a 3-0 thrashing of Marsa earlier this season.

Form & H2H: Esperance has won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings. Marsa has a poor scoring record away from home, often failing to register against top-tier opposition.

Analysis: Esperance is essentially the form watcher’s lock of the day. They rarely drop points at the Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi.

Prediction: Esperance Tunis to win.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa?

Our selection is 1 — Esperance Tunis to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 65%.

What is Esperance Tunis's current form?

Esperance Tunis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has AS Marsa been performing recently?

AS Marsa have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Esperance Tunis lead with 4 wins versus AS Marsa's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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