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Result: Wrexham 2-2 Chelsea

Wrexham

Home Side

W W W D W

4W 1D 0L

2-2

FA Cup

Chelsea

Away Side

W L D W D

2W 2D 1L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Chelsea to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026

Best Odds 1.41

Confidence 47%

Implied Prob 70.9%

30%

20%

50%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

2 — Chelsea to win

1.41

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — Yes70%

Implied Prob

70.9%

Based on 1.41 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-23.9%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Wrexham

Draws

Chelsea

Meetings

50%

BTTS Rate

100%

Over 2.5

4.5

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Chelsea won 1 of 2 meetings.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Wrexham

Metric

Chelsea

2.2

Goals For / Game

2.4

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

4-1-0

W — D — L

2-2-1

Win Rate Comparison

80%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.0%

0-1 5.4%

0-2 4.9%

0-3 2.9%

0-4 1.3%

0-5 0.5%

1-0 5.1%

1-1 9.2%

1-2 8.3%

1-3 5.0%

1-4 2.3%

1-5 0.8%

2-0 4.4%

2-1 7.9%

2-2 7.1%

2-3 4.2%

2-4 1.9%

2-5 0.7%

3-0 2.5%

3-1 4.5%

3-2 4.0%

3-3 2.4%

3-4 1.1%

3-5 0.4%

4-0 1.1%

4-1 1.9%

4-2 1.7%

4-3 1.0%

4-4 0.5%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (8.3%) 0-1 (5.4%) 1-3 (5.0%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · W=Home goals ↓ C=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Wrexham Win

30%

3.33

Draw

20%

Chelsea Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Wrexham

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

Chelsea

Overall

5.2 —

Scoring

8.0 —

Defence

6.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 14%

Draw & BTTS No 6%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%

Away Win & BTTS No 8%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 16%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 19%

Away Win & Under 2.5 8%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ CF (Jul 25, 2024): Chelsea2

Wrexham2

⚽ CF (Jul 20, 2023): Chelsea5

Wrexham0

Recent Form

Wrexham

⚽ CHA (Feb 28, 2026): Charlton0

Wrexham1

⚽ CHA (Feb 24, 2026): Wrexham2

Portsmouth1

⚽ CHA (Feb 21, 2026): Wrexham5

Ipswich3

⚽ CHA (Feb 17, 2026): Bristol City2

Wrexham2

⚽ FAC (Feb 13, 2026): Wrexham1

Ipswich0

Chelsea

⚽ PL (Mar 4, 2026): Aston Villa1

Chelsea4

⚽ PL (Mar 1, 2026): Arsenal2

Chelsea1

⚽ PL (Feb 21, 2026): Chelsea1

Burnley1

⚽ FAC (Feb 13, 2026): Hull0

Chelsea4

⚽ PL (Feb 10, 2026): Chelsea2

Leeds2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, Wrexham host Chelsea in FA Cup. We recommend Chelsea to win as the standout selection.

Wrexham arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Chelsea are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 2D 1L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Wrexham, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Chelsea's 1, with 1 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: chelsea to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

The most anticipated match of the weekend. Wrexham, now a competitive Championship side, hosts Chelsea at the Racecourse Ground. Chelsea is in fine form, sitting 5th in the Premier League, but the atmosphere in North Wales will be electric.

Form & H2H: This is their first competitive meeting since 1982. Wrexham has already knocked out Nottingham Forest, proving they can handle top-flight pressure. Chelsea recently thrashed Aston Villa 4-1.

Analysis: While Chelsea is the clear favorite, Wrexham is a form watcher’s wildcard. They have won three in a row at home. However, Chelsea’s depth and Premier League quality should eventually prevail in what will be a closely fought “cupset” attempt.

Prediction: Chelsea to win.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Wrexham vs Chelsea?

Our selection is 2 — Chelsea to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 47%.

What is Wrexham's current form?

Wrexham have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Chelsea been performing recently?

Chelsea have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Wrexham lead with 0 wins versus Chelsea's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.

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