WON
Result:
NEC FC 1 - 0 UPDF
N
NEC FC
Home Side
D
W
D
W
D
1W 1D 0L
VS
1 - 0
U
UPDF
Away Side
L
D
L
L
L
0W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing NEC FC to win — Tuesday, 3rd March 2026
Best Odds
1.45
Confidence
37%
Implied Prob
69%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — NEC FC to win
1.45
Under 2.5 Goals75%
BTTS — No75%
Implied Prob
69%
Based on 1.45 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-32%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
0
NEC FC
5
Draws
0
UPDF
5
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.4
Avg Goals
Against Pick
NEC FC won 0 of the last 5 meetings (5 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
NEC FC
Metric
UPDF
1
Goals For / Game
0
0.5
Goals Against / Game
2.5
50%
Clean Sheet %
0%
1-1-0
W — D — L
0-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
N0
0-0
13.5%
0-1
3.4%
0-2
0.4%
0-3
0.0%
0-4
0.0%
0-5
0.0%
N1
1-0
23.7%
1-1
5.9%
1-2
0.7%
1-3
0.1%
1-4
0.0%
1-5
0.0%
N2
2-0
20.7%
2-1
5.2%
2-2
0.7%
2-3
0.1%
2-4
0.0%
2-5
0.0%
N3
3-0
12.1%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
0.4%
3-3
0.0%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
N4
4-0
5.3%
4-1
1.3%
4-2
0.2%
4-3
0.0%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
N5
5-0
1.9%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (23.7%)
2-0 (20.7%)
3-0 (12.1%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓ U=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
NEC FC Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
UPDF Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Home Win & BTTS No
50%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
25%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
17%
Home Win & Under 2.5
50%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
25%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
: UPD0
NEC0
: UPD0
NEC0
: NEC1
UPD0
: UPD2
NEC2
: NEC2
UPD0
Recent Form
NEC FC
: VIP1
NEC1
: NEC3
KCC1
: NEC0
EXP0
: BUH0
NEC1
: NEC3
KIT3
UPDF
: LUG1
UPD0
: UPD0
BUH0
: UPD0
BUL1
: KCC4
UPD0
: UPD0
ENT1
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for NEC FC vs UPDF?
Our selection is 1 — NEC FC to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 37%.
What is NEC FC's current form?
NEC FC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 2 matches.
How has UPDF been performing recently?
UPDF have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 2 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
NEC FC lead with 0 wins versus UPDF's 0, with 5 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.